2/28/2011
Gap Fade Data:
Table - 1 Gap Fade Probabilities (based on Market Structure)
Table - 2 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Table - 3 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on Timing)
After Gap Data:
Table - 1A After Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Table - 2A After Gap probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Table - 3A After Gap probabilities(based on Timing)
Anti Gap Data:
Table - 1ANT Anti Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Table - 2ANT Anti Gap probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Table - 3ANT Anti Gap probabilities(based on Timing)
Gap Fade Data:
Table - 1 Gap Fade Probabilities (based on Market Structure)
Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | |
Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | ||
PF | 1.05 | 1.49 | 0.97 | 0.54 | 2.92 | |
PCT Prof | 57% | 72% | 59% | 44% | 50% | |
Avg Loss | $373 | $233 | $185 | $222 | $234 | |
Net Loss | $8,200 | $4,900 | $5,188 | $3,325 | $3,975 | |
Loose | 22 | 21 | 28 | 15 | 17 | |
Avg Win | $296 | $133 | $122 | $149 | $683 | |
Net Win | $8,575 | $7,300 | $5,013 | $1,788 | $11,613 | |
Win | 29 | 55 | 41 | 12 | 17 | |
Avg P/L | $7 | $32 | $3 | $57 | $225 | |
Net | $375 | $2,400 | $175 | $1,538 | $7,638 | |
Total | 51 | 76 | 69 | 27 | 34 |
Table - 2 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | |
Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | ||
PF | 0.86 | 0.79 | 1.02 | 1.81 | 1.91 | |
PCT Prof | 47% | 61% | 63% | 76% | 45% | |
Avg Loss | $287 | $238 | $221 | $250 | $314 | |
Net Loss | $5,450 | $3,575 | $3,763 | $1,000 | $3,450 | |
Loose | 19 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 11 | |
Avg Win | $276 | $123 | $132 | $139 | $733 | |
Net Win | $4,700 | $2,825 | $3,825 | $1,813 | $6,600 | |
Win | 17 | 23 | 29 | 13 | 9 | |
Avg P/L | $21 | $20 | $1 | $48 | $158 | |
Net | $750 | $750 | $63 | $813 | $3,150 | |
Total | 36 | 38 | 46 | 17 | 20 |
Table - 3 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on Timing)
Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | |
Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | ||
PF | 0.79 | 1.74 | 0.91 | 1.24 | 1.09 | |
PCT Prof | 52% | 75% | 64% | 50% | 35% | |
Avg Loss | $317 | $250 | $236 | $193 | $346 | |
Net Loss | $15,525 | $4,000 | $9,200 | $3,288 | $5,188 | |
Loose | 49 | 16 | 39 | 17 | 15 | |
Avg Win | $230 | $148 | $122 | $239 | $708 | |
Net Win | $12,200 | $6,963 | $8,400 | $4,063 | $5,663 | |
Win | 53 | 47 | 69 | 17 | 8 | |
Avg P/L | $33 | $47 | $7 | $23 | $21 | |
Net | $3,325 | $2,963 | $800 | $775 | $475 | |
Total | 102 | 63 | 108 | 34 | 23 |
After Gap Data:
Table - 1A After Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | |
Long | Long | Short | Short | Short | ||
PF | 1.24 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.47 | |
PCT Prof | 73% | 62% | 51% | 55% | 50% | |
Avg Loss | $391 | $337 | $238 | $238 | $302 | |
Net Loss | $2,738 | $9,100 | $8,100 | $1,188 | $2,113 | |
Loose | 7 | 27 | 34 | 5 | 7 | |
Avg Win | $179 | $123 | $113 | $98 | $143 | |
Net Win | $3,400 | $5,400 | $4,063 | $588 | $1,000 | |
Win | 19 | 44 | 36 | 6 | 7 | |
Avg P/L | $25 | $52 | $58 | $55 | $79 | |
Net | $663 | $3,700 | $4,038 | $600 | $1,113 | |
Total | 26 | 71 | 70 | 11 | 14 |
Table - 2A After Gap probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | |
Long | Long | Short | Short | Short | ||
PF | 4.59 | 0.63 | 1.03 | 0.47 | 3.64 | |
PCT Prof | 83% | 68% | 70% | 50% | 86% | |
Avg Loss | $192 | $325 | $338 | $229 | $275 | |
Net Loss | $575 | $3,250 | $3,375 | $688 | $275 | |
Loose | 3 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | |
Avg Win | $176 | $98 | $151 | $108 | $167 | |
Net Win | $2,638 | $2,063 | $3,463 | $325 | $1,000 | |
Win | 15 | 21 | 23 | 3 | 6 | |
Avg P/L | $115 | $38 | $3 | $60 | $104 | |
Net | $2,063 | $1,188 | $88 | $363 | $725 | |
Total | 18 | 31 | 33 | 6 | 7 |
Table - 3A After Gap probabilities(based on Timing)
Opening Zone | > H | H-C | C-O | O-L | < L | |
Long | Long | Short | Short | Short | ||
PF | 0.73 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 0.55 | 0.72 | |
PCT Prof | 59% | 76% | 71% | 46% | 33% | |
Avg Loss | $287 | $322 | $302 | $175 | $181 | |
Net Loss | $5,163 | $4,188 | $6,650 | $1,225 | $725 | |
Loose | 18 | 13 | 22 | 7 | 4 | |
Avg Win | $144 | $116 | $136 | $113 | $263 | |
Net Win | $3,750 | $4,763 | $7,488 | $675 | $525 | |
Win | 26 | 41 | 55 | 6 | 2 | |
Avg P/L | $37 | $20 | $10 | $42 | $21 | |
Net | $1,625 | $1,075 | $775 | $550 | $125 | |
Total | 44 | 54 | 77 | 13 | 6 |
Anti Gap Data:
Table - 1ANT Anti Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Table - 2ANT Anti Gap probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Table - 3ANT Anti Gap probabilities(based on Timing)