Today's Data

2/28/2011

Gap Fade Data:
Table - 1    Gap Fade Probabilities (based on Market Structure)

Opening Zone > H H-C C-O O-L < L


Short Short Long Long Long
PF
1.05 1.49 0.97 0.54 2.92
PCT Prof 57% 72% 59% 44% 50%
Avg Loss $373 $233 $185 $222 $234
Net Loss $8,200 $4,900 $5,188 $3,325 $3,975
Loose
22 21 28 15 17
Avg Win $296 $133 $122 $149 $683
Net Win $8,575 $7,300 $5,013 $1,788 $11,613
Win
29 55 41 12 17
Avg P/L $7 $32 $3 $57 $225
Net
$375 $2,400 $175 $1,538 $7,638
Total 
51 76 69 27 34

Table - 2     Gap Fade Probabilities(based on Market Condition)

Opening Zone > H H-C C-O O-L < L


Short Short Long Long Long
PF
0.86 0.79 1.02 1.81 1.91
PCT Prof 47% 61% 63% 76% 45%
Avg Loss $287 $238 $221 $250 $314
Net Loss $5,450 $3,575 $3,763 $1,000 $3,450
Loose
19 15 17 4 11
Avg Win $276 $123 $132 $139 $733
Net Win $4,700 $2,825 $3,825 $1,813 $6,600
Win
17 23 29 13 9
Avg P/L $21 $20 $1 $48 $158
Net
$750 $750 $63 $813 $3,150
Total 
36 38 46 17 20

Table - 3     Gap Fade Probabilities(based on Timing)

Opening Zone > H H-C C-O O-L < L


Short Short Long Long Long
PF
0.79 1.74 0.91 1.24 1.09
PCT Prof 52% 75% 64% 50% 35%
Avg Loss $317 $250 $236 $193 $346
Net Loss $15,525 $4,000 $9,200 $3,288 $5,188
Loose
49 16 39 17 15
Avg Win $230 $148 $122 $239 $708
Net Win $12,200 $6,963 $8,400 $4,063 $5,663
Win
53 47 69 17 8
Avg P/L $33 $47 $7 $23 $21
Net
$3,325 $2,963 $800 $775 $475
Total 
102 63 108 34 23

After Gap Data:
Table - 1A     After Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)

Opening Zone > H H-C C-O O-L < L


Long Long Short Short Short
PF
1.24 0.59 0.50 0.49 0.47
PCT Prof 73% 62% 51% 55% 50%
Avg Loss $391 $337 $238 $238 $302
Net Loss $2,738 $9,100 $8,100 $1,188 $2,113
Loose
7 27 34 5 7
Avg Win $179 $123 $113 $98 $143
Net Win $3,400 $5,400 $4,063 $588 $1,000
Win
19 44 36 6 7
Avg P/L $25 $52 $58 $55 $79
Net
$663 $3,700 $4,038 $600 $1,113
Total 
26 71 70 11 14

Table - 2A     After Gap probabilities(based on Market Condition)

Opening Zone > H H-C C-O O-L < L


Long Long Short Short Short
PF
4.59 0.63 1.03 0.47 3.64
PCT Prof 83% 68% 70% 50% 86%
Avg Loss $192 $325 $338 $229 $275
Net Loss $575 $3,250 $3,375 $688 $275
Loose
3 10 10 3 1
Avg Win $176 $98 $151 $108 $167
Net Win $2,638 $2,063 $3,463 $325 $1,000
Win
15 21 23 3 6
Avg P/L $115 $38 $3 $60 $104
Net
$2,063 $1,188 $88 $363 $725
Total 
18 31 33 6 7

Table - 3A     After Gap probabilities(based on Timing)

Opening Zone > H H-C C-O O-L < L


Long Long Short Short Short
PF
0.73 1.14 1.13 0.55 0.72
PCT Prof 59% 76% 71% 46% 33%
Avg Loss $287 $322 $302 $175 $181
Net Loss $5,163 $4,188 $6,650 $1,225 $725
Loose
18 13 22 7 4
Avg Win $144 $116 $136 $113 $263
Net Win $3,750 $4,763 $7,488 $675 $525
Win
26 41 55 6 2
Avg P/L $37 $20 $10 $42 $21
Net
$1,625 $1,075 $775 $550 $125
Total 
44 54 77 13 6

Anti Gap Data:
Table - 1ANT     Anti Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Table - 2ANT     Anti Gap probabilities(based on Market Condition)
Table - 3ANT     Anti Gap probabilities(based on Timing)