Wednesday 9/22/2010

Today's Market Highlights:  
FOMC Meeting: The FOMC had no change in interest rates and indicated that if needed, it is ready to take further steps to boost the economy.
Exception 1- Today is a day that is following a Fed day.  We have had 104 Fed days in the past 13 years (Some FOMC meeting takes two days.  In those cases I am counting only the second day when the report is published.)  The direction of market on the day after Fed days is 50% up or down with win almost equal to loss (On the Fed days itself is 60% up and win/loss ration is 2.02.)
40 of all Fed days have been down days like Tuesday.  65% of the days following such days ended up higher with a win/loss ratio of 1.88.
Exception 2 - There has been 184 down days which made a new 20-day highs.  57% of the days following such days ended higher with win almost equal to loss.  That means the average drop has been about 15% higher than average gain.
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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.









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