Wednesday 9/15/2010

Today's Market Highlights:  

Exception 1 - Today is a day after an unfilled up gap followed by two near doji days(Close and open of days are equal or less than 2.5 points apart.)  There have been 23 such days in the past 13 years.  Chance of going up or down is about 50%.  However, the average move up is about double the average move down.
Exception 2 -  Today is the Wednesday of the option expiration week.  We have had 156 such days in the past 13 years.  If you bought at open and sold at close, win rate is about 52% but there has been more large drops than large gains in such days.  The overall profit/loss (profit factor) is 0.87.  So this Exception conflicts with Exception 1 on profit factor.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

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