Market Exceptions: September 2010

Friday 10/1/2010

Today's Market Exceptions Highlights:

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Exit your positions before any scheduled major news because such news take command of the market and cancel the effect of any probability calculations based on yesterdays price actions. All zones are exclusive. Always check for latest update before opening.

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 13 year of data.

Thursday 9/30/2010

Today's Market Exceptions Highlights:

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 13 year of data.

Wednesday 9/29/2010

Today's Market Exceptions Highlights:

Exception 1 -

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 13 year of data.

Tuesday 9/28/2010

Today's Market Exceptions Highlights:

Exception 1 -

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Monday 9/27/2010

Today's Market Exceptions Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is a day following a solid up day which was proceeded by a negative doji day (Close and open less than 1 point apart). The solid up day violated the high of the doji day. We have had 12 such days that the up day closed more than 0.8% above the high of doji day. If you bought at the open of next days and sold at close, you would have had a win rate of 75% and a win/loss ratio(PF) of 4.8.
I run this same test for various percentage of increase instead of 0.8%. Here is the complete result:

Pct      Sample Size        Win Rate       PF

0.8%     12                 75%            4.8
0.7    15 73%      4.38
0.6      19                 74%            3.25
0.5      21                 76%            4.25
0.4      28                 71%            5.64

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Friday 9/24/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is a day following a doji day (Close and open less than 1 point apart) that closed in the lower 30% of its range. We have had a total of 33 such days. If you bought at the open and sold at the close of the following days, your results would have been win rate of 39% and win/loss ratio of 0.49 (for each dollor you won, you lost $2.00 - eeeek!)
Exception 2 - Today is a day following a doji day (Close and open less than 1 point apart) that closed below the low of its prior day. We have had a total of 21 such days. If you bought at the open and sold at the close of all such days, your results would have been win rate of 43% and win/loss ratio of 0.38 (for every dollor you won, you lost $2.63 - even worse than exception 1!)

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Thursday 9/23/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception analysis point to an even 50/50 day. The market can move in either direction with equal probability and win/loss ratio of about 1.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Wednesday 9/22/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

FOMC Meeting: The FOMC had no change in interest rates and indicated that if needed, it is ready to take further steps to boost the economy.
Exception 1- Today is a day that is following a Fed day. We have had 104 Fed days in the past 13 years (Some FOMC meeting takes two days. In those cases I am counting only the second day when the report is published.) The direction of market on the day after Fed days is 50% up or down with win almost equal to loss (On the Fed days itself is 60% up and win/loss ration is 2.02.)
40 of all Fed days have been down days like Tuesday. 65% of the days following such days ended up higher with a win/loss ratio of 1.88.
Exception 2 - There has been 184 down days which made a new 20-day highs. 57% of the days following such days ended higher with win almost equal to loss. That means the average drop has been about 15% higher than average gain.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Tuesday 9/21/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is a Fed day when FOMC will release a new report about price stability and economic conditions. We have had 106 such meeting since 1997. Historically about 60% of the time rates remained unchanged. About 23% of times rates were increased and about 17% of the time rates were lowered. Generally speaking, on such days the market is indecisive with low volume before the release of the report. After the report is released, the market picks on volume and reacts to the report. I will do a more detail research on impact of Fed days on market for next Fed day which is on November 2 and 3, 2010.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Monday 9/20/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is the Monday after option expiration down day. We have had 74 such days in the past 13 years. 57% have ended lower by the end of the day with a win/loss ratio of 0.67. That means if we had bought at open and sold at the close on every such day, the total loss is 1.5 times the win.
Exception 2 -On Friday the market made a new 20 day high. From 74 incidents in Exception 1, only 10 met the criteria of 20 day high. This small sample indicates that 70% of the time the market ended higher with win/loss ration of 1.6.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Friday 9/17/2010

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

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This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Thursday 9/16/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is a day after an up day that followed a doji day (Close and open within one point.) In addition, the high of yesterday did not violate the high of the doji day. There have been 10 such days in the past 13 years. Based on this data, if you buy at open and sell at close, chance of winning is 70%. Win/Loss ratio (Profit Factor) is 2.36.
Exception 2 - Today is the Thursday of the option expiration week. We have had 156 such days in the past 13 years. If you bought at open and sold at close, win rate is about 52% with winning only slightly more than losing.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Wednesday 9/15/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is a day after an unfilled up gap followed by two near doji days(Close and open of days are equal or less than 2.5 points apart.) There have been 23 such days in the past 13 years. Chance of going up or down is about 50%. However, the average move up is about double the average move down.
Exception 2 - Today is the Wednesday of the option expiration week. We have had 156 such days in the past 13 years. If you bought at open and sold at close, win rate is about 52% but there has been more large drops than large gains in such days. The overall profit/loss (profit factor) is 0.87. So this Exception conflicts with Exception 1 on profit factor.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Tuesday 9/14/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is a day following an outside up day. We have had 126 such days in the past 13 years. 56% of the days following such days have ended up higher by the end of the day.
Exception 2 - Monday was also a day that the close and open were very close(Near Doji). Of the 126 outside up days, there have been 11 days with close - open <= 2.5. 73% of days following such days ended up higher with a win/loss ratio (profit factor) of 9.04.
Exception 3 - Today is the day following an extremely unusual scenario of six consecutive unfilled gaps. Chance of this happening is about 0.07%. This has never happened before. However, two other times we have had 5 consecutive unfilled gaps. Once on 3/11/1998 and once on 7/25/2007. In both cases, the market moved at least 60 points in less than a month in the direction of the trend.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Monday 9/13/2010

Today's Market Highlights:

Exception 1 - Today is the day after an inside up day following a down day (High less then open of prior day and low greater than close of prior day.) We have had 23 such days in the past 13 years. 56% ended up higher by the end of the following day.
Exception 2 - Today is the first Monday after contract change. There have been 52 such days in the past 13 years. 62% have ended up higher by the end of the day. If you bought at the open and sold at the close on all days, your profit factor or win/loss ratio would have been over 2.
Exception 3 - Today is the day following a most unusual scenario of five consecutive unfilled gaps. Chance of this happening is about 0.25%. There is not enough data to come up with an analysis. I will work on effect of unfilled gaps on next day price action. This may help to understand these unusual sequences better.

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Friday 9/10/2010

You can trade ES in a real or free demo account with GLOBAL FUTURES .

ES(E-Mini S&P 500) Click here for past performance
Exit your positions before any scheduled major news because such news take command of the market and cancel the effect of any probability calculations based on yesterdays price actions. All zones are exclusive. Always check for latest update before opening.

Today's Market Exceptions:
Exception 1 - Today is the day after an unfilled gap on a false up day (market closed higher than the prior day but closed lower than same day open.) We have had 41 such days in the past 12 years. The chance of market going up or down is close to 50/50, but the average move down by the end of the day is about 73% more than similar moves up.
Exception 2 - Today is the day following an unusual scenario of four consecutive unfilled gaps. There has been 16 such days in the past 12 years. Chance of going up/down based on this data is exactly 50%. However, it appears that after such days, the market has tendency to move up/down indecisively before and if taking any directions. In addition, Fridays are the least likely days of all other days for the market to trend. Scalping in both directions may be a good strategy for today.

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Thursday 9/9/2010

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Today's Market Exception:

A down day followed by an up day with an unfilled gap portion of 1 points or less. There have been 39 such days in the past 12 years. 61,5% of such days were followed by an up day.
Attention: All following data is based on December(Z) contract.

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.

Wednesday 9/8/2010

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Today's Market Exception:

The market closed below the low of prior day after 4 consecutive up days. Historically 63% of such days have been followed by a down day. So there is a good chance the market will end up lower today. There has been 19 such days in the past 12 years.

Click General Information to learn more.

This forecast is based on analysis of data tables prepared by computer simulation and modeling every night based on more than 12 year of data.

Click here to see review of past trades.