Gap Probabilities for Friday 7/16/2010
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These Probabilities Have lead to 100% Winning Trades so far!
Please note that the above factual statement does not mean that it is mathematically possible for this to continue for ever. Having said that, I believe this system will help you gain remarkable advantage over random trades.
For help with using this guide visit Fading Opening Gaps 101.
For trading in general, the best place I have found so far is
LBR Group
headed by market wizard Linda Raschke. Beware that most other sites are scams.
LBR Group
headed by market wizard Linda Raschke. Beware that most other sites are scams.
H, O, C, and L refer to High, Open, Close and Low of yesterday
Yesterday's Forecast and Review
Yesterday's Forecast:
Before Gap
The high probability areas confirmed by both structure and timing are the H-C(1095.50 to 1091) for short and O-L(1088 to 1083.50) for long zones. There is a very good chance that this trade will trigger and I will take this trade.
Stop is 6.5.
The high probability areas confirmed by both structure and timing are the H-C(1095.50 to 1091) for short and O-L(1088 to 1083.50) for long zones. There is a very good chance that this trade will trigger and I will take this trade.
Stop is 6.5.
After Gap
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the open(1088 ) and it closes the gap at 1091, then I will enter at the direction of closing the gap for 4 additional points.
Stop is 6.5.
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the open(1088 ) and it closes the gap at 1091, then I will enter at the direction of closing the gap for 4 additional points.
Stop is 6.5.
Yesterday's Review:
Before Gap - ES opened at 1091.25 only one tick above the close and in H-C zone. This zone was high probability but most of the gap faded just before open so there was not much profit to be made from this trade. However, it did trigger a successful After Gap trade.
After Gap - The market opened in H-C zone and closed the gap immediately. This triggered an excellent After Gap trade. The win rate was 92% and profit factor 9.2, an amazing rare situation. I shorted the market at 1091 and it reached my target of 4 points in about 10 minutes. I remember one other setup like this before and the market acted exactly the same way. So I am happy I made some profit from this trade, but the satisfaction I get from seeing my hard work is resulting in a system that is working so accurately is far more.
After Gap - The market opened in H-C zone and closed the gap immediately. This triggered an excellent After Gap trade. The win rate was 92% and profit factor 9.2, an amazing rare situation. I shorted the market at 1091 and it reached my target of 4 points in about 10 minutes. I remember one other setup like this before and the market acted exactly the same way. So I am happy I made some profit from this trade, but the satisfaction I get from seeing my hard work is resulting in a system that is working so accurately is far more.
Today's Forecast Summary:
Before Gap
The only high probability area confirmed by both structure and timing are the H zone (above 1095.50) for short.
Stop is 6.
The only high probability area confirmed by both structure and timing are the H zone (above 1095.50) for short.
Stop is 6.
After Gap
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the open(1091.25 ) and it closes the gap at 1090.25, then there is high probability that the market will continue going down another 4 points.
Stop is 6.
Table - 2 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on timing)
According to Table - 3, if the market opens above the open(1091.25 ) and it closes the gap at 1090.25, then there is high probability that the market will continue going down another 4 points.
Stop is 6.
Today's Data:
ES pivot points:
R3: 1125.75
Fib 1.618: 1107.50
R2: 1106.50
Fib 1.272: 1100.75
R1: 1098.25
High: 1095.50
Open: 1091.25
Close: 1090.25
Pivot: 1087.25
S1: 1079.00
Low: 1076.25
Fib 1.272: 1071.00
S2: 1068.00
Fib 1.618: 1064.25
S3: 1048.75
Fib 1.618: 1107.50
R2: 1106.50
Fib 1.272: 1100.75
R1: 1098.25
High: 1095.50
Open: 1091.25
Close: 1090.25
Pivot: 1087.25
S1: 1079.00
Low: 1076.25
Fib 1.272: 1071.00
S2: 1068.00
Fib 1.618: 1064.25
S3: 1048.75
Profit Target = Gap Close, Stop = 6 points.
| Opening Zone | > H | H-O | O-C | C-L | < L | All | All | |
| Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | Longs | Shorts | ||
| PF | 100.00 | 1.79 | 0.67 | 0.95 | 2.45 | 1.13 | 1.51 | |
| PCT Prof | 100% | 69% | 60% | 58% | 67% | 66% | 74% | |
| Avg Loss | $0 | $250 | $281 | $255 | $125 | $225 | $276 | |
| Net Loss | $0 | $1,000 | $563 | $1,275 | $250 | $25,188 | $26,188 | |
| Loose | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 112 | 95 | |
| Avg Win | $250 | $199 | $125 | $173 | $153 | $128 | $145 | |
| Net Win | $1,750 | $1,788 | $375 | $1,213 | $613 | $28,438 | $39,538 | |
| Win | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 222 | 273 | |
| Avg P/L | $250 | $61 | $38 | $5 | $60 | $10 | $36 | |
| Net | $1,750 | $788 | $188 | $63 | $363 | $3,250 | $13,350 | |
| Total | 7 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 334 | 368 | |
Table - 2 Gap Fade Probabilities(based on timing)
Profit Target = Gap Close, Stop = 6 points.
Copyright © Ali Mohseni 2010 Charts are created using Tradestation software.
| Opening Zone | > H | H-O | O-C | C-L | < L | All | All | |
| Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | Longs | Shorts | ||
| PF | 1.72 | 0.74 | 1.47 | 1.19 | 2.06 | 1.27 | 1.58 | |
| PCT Prof | 57% | 44% | 79% | 79% | 56% | 66% | 72% | |
| Avg Loss | $274 | $296 | $390 | $375 | $303 | $324 | $323 | |
| Net Loss | $2,738 | $4,138 | $9,738 | $4,500 | $7,263 | $28,175 | $31,025 | |
| Loose | 10 | 14 | 25 | 12 | 24 | 87 | 96 | |
| Avg Win | $362 | $278 | $154 | $119 | $483 | $213 | $197 | |
| Net Win | $4,700 | $3,063 | $14,313 | $5,350 | $14,975 | $35,863 | $48,950 | |
| Win | 13 | 11 | 93 | 45 | 31 | 168 | 249 | |
| Avg P/L | $85 | $43 | $39 | $15 | $140 | $30 | $52 | |
| Net | $1,963 | $1,075 | $4,575 | $850 | $7,713 | $7,688 | $17,925 | |
| Total | 23 | 25 | 118 | 57 | 55 | 255 | 345 | |
Table - 3 After Gap probabilities(based on Market Structure)
Profit Target = 4 points, Stop = 6 points. Conditional probabilities after the gap is filled.
| Opening Zone | > H | H-O | O-C | C-L | < L | All | All | |
| Short | Short | Long | Long | Long | Longs | Shorts | ||
| PF | 2.40 | 1.52 | 0.27 | 1.20 | 0.27 | 0.93 | 1.19 | |
| PCT Prof | 75% | 67% | 25% | 60% | 40% | 55% | 60% | |
| Avg Loss | $250 | $263 | $250 | $250 | $267 | $239 | $246 | |
| Net Loss | $250 | $525 | $750 | $500 | $800 | $26,500 | $24,313 | |
| Loose | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 111 | 99 | |
| Avg Win | $200 | $200 | $200 | $200 | $106 | $183 | $195 | |
| Net Win | $600 | $800 | $200 | $600 | $213 | $24,563 | $28,913 | |
| Win | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 134 | 148 | |
| Avg P/L | $88 | $46 | $138 | $20 | $118 | $8 | $19 | |
| Net | $350 | $275 | $550 | $100 | $588 | $1,938 | $4,600 | |
| Total | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 245 | 247 | |
Good luck and please direct any questions or suggestions!
Copyright © Ali Mohseni 2010 Charts are created using Tradestation software.
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