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Trade at your own risk!
If you need help with reading and using these data please visit Fading Opening Gaps 101.Trade at your own risk!
If you need help with trading in general, the best place I have found so far is LBR Group headed by market wizard Linda Raschke. Beware that most other sites are purely scams.
Today's Market Exception(Rare Situation):
If the Emini S&P Future opens below 1126.50 and the gap gets closed(1110.50), there is probability of 86% (combined with high profit factor of 1.6) that the market would move 4 more points in the same direction(direction of fading the gap). So the strategy for this would be wait until market reaches 1110.50, wait for a pull back and then go long/short if the opening price is below/above 1110.50. The recommended stop would be 5 point from the open price away from 1110.50. Depending on where the market opens, it may help to adjust your target and stop according to pivot levels.
Gap fading probability numbers for June 22, 2010
Emini S&P Future
H(High) = 1127.50
O(Open) = 1126.50
C(Close) = 1110.50
L(Low) = 1102.35
Trade at your own risk!
All numbers below are based on Profit Target = Gap Close, Stop = 5 points.
The following info is based on Market mood:
Emini S&P Future
| H | HO | OC | CL | L | ||
| Short | Short | Short | Long | Long | ||
| PF | 100.00 | 100.00 | 1.00 | 100.00 | 0.67 | |
| PCT Prof | 100% | --- | 67% | 100% | 50% | |
| Avg Loss | $0 | $0 | $600 | $0 | $450 | |
| Net Loss | $0 | $0 | $600 | $0 | $450 | |
| Loose | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Avg Win | $300 | $0 | $300 | $300 | $300 | |
| Net Win | $300 | $0 | $600 | $300 | $300 | |
| Win | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Avg P/L | $300 | --- | $0 | $300 | $75 | |
| Net | $300 | $0 | $0 | $300 | $150 | |
| Total | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
The following info is based on timing:
Emini S&P Future
| H | HO | OC | CL | L | Total | Total | |
| Short | Short | Short | Long | Long | LONG | SHORT | |
| PF | 0.46 | 0.67 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 0.80 | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| PCT Prof | 29.41% | 52.78% | 75.65% | 78.13% | 47.37% | 67.97% | 67.19% |
| Avg Loss | $361 | $329 | $382 | $315 | $298 | $288 | $330 |
| Net Loss | $4,338 | $5,600 | $10,688 | $4,413 | $8,938 | $25,888 | $34,675 |
| Loose | 12 | 17 | 28 | 14 | 30 | 90 | 105 |
| Avg Win | $400 | $198 | $165 | $118 | $263 | $154 | $169 |
| Net Win | $2,000 | $3,763 | $14,313 | $5,875 | $7,113 | $29,400 | $36,350 |
| Win | 5 | 19 | 87 | 50 | 27 | 191 | 215 |
| Avg P/L | $138 | $51 | $32 | $23 | $32 | $13 | $5 |
| Net | $2,338 | $1,838 | $3,625 | $1,463 | $1,825 | $3,513 | $1,675 |
| Total | 17 | 36 | 115 | 64 | 57 | 281 | 320 |
The numbers for market mood are not reliable because of the small sample size. The numbers based on timing support fading opening gaps in the OC and CL zones. The ideal situation is if both methods support it. In this case, if I fade the opening gaps tomarrow, it will be with lots of caution and the gaps have to be small size.
Good luck and please direct any questions or suggestions.
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